The $166 Billion Tariff Refund Opportunity

On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court of the United States issued a 6-3 decision in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump. The Court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the president unilateral authority to impose sweeping reciprocal import tariffs. This ruling effectively struck down the "Liberation Day tariffs" established under Executive Order 14257 in April 2025, which had mandated a baseline 10% tariff on nearly all imports.

The fiscal scale of this ruling is unprecedented:

• Total Refund Pool: An estimated $166 billion in duties plus interest is owed back to U.S. importers.
• Scope: The refunds cover approximately 53 million individual shipments imported by more than 330,000 unique importers.
• The Squeeze: Immediately following the ruling, the administration signed Proclamation 11012, invoking Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a temporary 10% global tariff surcharge set to expire on July 24, 2026. While the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) struck down these Section 122 tariffs on May 7, 2026, the government's active appeal means non-plaintiff importers must continue paying Section 122 duties while waiting months for IEEPA refunds.

This overlapping regulatory landscape creates a severe capital squeeze for middle-market importers who are currently paying new surcharges while waiting for the return of historical cash reserves.

To manage the logistics of dispersing $166 billion, CBP developed and launched the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) system within the Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) Secure Data Portal on April 20, 2026.

Rather than requiring importers to file protests on an entry-by-entry basis, the CAPE system utilizes a consolidated electronic processing layer. Importers of record (IORs) or their licensed customs brokers can submit bulk declarations. CBP then recalculates duties, executes mass liquidation or reliquidation, and issues a single, consolidated ACH payment including federal interest.

The CAPE system is being rolled out in phases to prioritize simpler claims and manage federal cash flow.

Technical Prerequisites for Applicants

Importers cannot access CAPE without verifying three administrative baselines:

1. 1
   Active ACE Secure Data Portal Account

   The declaration must be uploaded through an active portal account.
2. 2
   Validated CBP Form 5106

   The Importer ID Input Record must have 100% matching, current entity details. Mismatched addresses or EINs trigger automated system rejections.
3. 3
   Payer Unit Enrollment in ACH

   Importers must have an active ACH account linked to their IOR number. CBP will not process manual check distributions for CAPE claims.

While the legal victory in the Supreme Court is a major win for importers, the administrative reality creates substantial business challenges:

1. 1
   Working Capital Delays

   Even after a CAPE Declaration is successfully accepted, CBP's estimated processing and payout window is 60 to 90 days.
2. 2
   Administrative Bottlenecks

   System rejections, data mismatches, and automated audits can delay payouts by several additional months.
3. 3
   Phase 2 Delays

   Importers with older, liquidated entries (representing roughly 37% of the total pool) are completely excluded from Phase 1. CBP has not yet finalized the Phase 2 launch timeline.
4. 4
   Active Tariff Obligations

   Importers must continue to pay standard import duties and active temporary surcharges, severely draining monthly cash flow.